Braskem 4Q25: Credit Story Turns to Survival

Weak fundamentals, court protection risk, and reliance on external solutions leave the bonds driven more by event risk than valuation

We downgrade Braskem to Neutral from Overweight. The recent report that the company is considering seeking local court protection against creditors, even if no final decision has been made and plans may still change, materially alters the risk profile and, in our view, is difficult to reconcile with an Overweight stance. This comes on top of an already very weak 4Q25 backdrop, with results remaining below expectations, liquidity deteriorating sharply, leverage increasing further, and management framing 2026 around liquidity preservation and capital structure reorganization rather than recovery. Braskem’s own disclosure that its results indicate a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt on the company’s ability to continue as a going concern further reinforces this shift in the credit narrative. In that context, we no longer think it is appropriate to recommend adding risk until there is greater clarity on whether Braskem can secure a credible out of court solution or will need to pursue a more formal restructuring path.