Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

Coordinated sovereign measures ease refinancing risk, bolster liquidity and lift market sentiment, though investor attention is shifting toward production and cash generation.

We maintain our Overweight recommendation on Pemex, supported by Mexico’s extraordinary demonstration of support, which effectively transfers the company’s refinancing burden onto the sovereign balance sheet. The sovereign raised about $13.8 billion across dollar and euro bonds to finance Pemex’s $9.9 billion tender and near-term maturities. Mexico also executed a landmark $12 billion pre-capitalized securities (P-Caps) transaction for Pemex. In parallel, authorities launched a P$250 billion (roughly $13.5 billion) investment fund to back projects and supplier payments, while the Finance Ministry signaled a near-$14 billion budget line for the company. Management also communicated expectations of a 32% decline in short-term obligations and a 10% reduction in total financial debt by year-end, while maintaining net indebtedness close to zero, all of which are supportive of Pemex’s credit profile.