Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

Strong production, lower capex, and lower lifting costs lift EBITDA; liquidity improves but remains thin while cash generation was negative. 2033s preferred.

We maintain our Overweight recommendation on Vista Energy, with a preference for the 2033 notes, which offer a similar yield to the 2035 notes despite their lower duration risk.

We believe the company maintains a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leading position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation. We think the country’s improving macroeconomic environment and renewed political strength further support Vista’s credit outlook. The company benefits from an oil-focused portfolio with a growing export share, potential liquidity support from its major shareholder, and a consistent track record of production and reserve growth. Vista also faces fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF. With solid execution on well tie-ins and expanding midstream capacity, the company remains on track to meet its ambitious EBITDA and production targets. All considered, we view Vista as an attractive credit for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational execution and a reduction in country risk should drive bond outperformance over the next 9 to 12 months.