YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Rising shale volumes and lower lifting costs drive EBITDA growth while election results reduce political risk

We maintain our Overweight recommendation on YPF (B2/B-/CCC+). Encouraging mature-field divestments and a meaningful decline in lifting costs support the company’s transformation as it focuses on expanding unconventional, lower-cost production and enhancing infrastructure through key midstream and export projects such as VMOS and Argentina LNG. We also view positively management’s emphasis on deleveraging following the Total Austral acquisition and its focus on building structural competitiveness. Additionally, we think the company will benefit from an improving macroeconomic environment that supports a stronger sovereign credit profile, and we view the recent political results in the October mid-term elections as having significantly reduced near-term political risk, which should incentivize investment and improve access to international capital markets, reinforcing overall macroeconomic confidence. We expect these efforts to strengthen YPF’s credit profile and drive outperformance in its bonds over the next 9 to 12 months.