We maintain our Neutral recommendation on YPF (B1/B/B-) and shift our preferred expression to the new 7.550% June 2035 senior unsecured notes from the YPFDAR 9.500% 2031s. The increase in the tender cap makes the transaction more credit positive than at launch, as YPF can now fully retire the targeted 2027 bonds and meaningfully reduce the 2029s ahead of the presidential election in October 2027. YPF’s underlying credit trajectory remains positive. Valuation has also improved since our 2Q26 report. We continue to see the opportunity as concentrated in bond selection rather than broad enough across the curve to support a renewed issuer-level Overweight. At the bond level, we prefer the new 2035s, which now trade approximately 29 bps above YPF’s curve on a YTW basis. The 9.500% 2031s, meanwhile, no longer offer the spread pickup that made them our preferred instrument in our 2Q26 report. We retain the 8.250% 2034s as our preferred shorter-duration alternative and continue to avoid the 7.000% 2033s and 7.000% 2047s.
YPF priced US$1.2 billion of 7.550% June 2035 senior unsecured notes at a 7.85% yield and $98.075 issue price, with settlement expected September 18, 2026. On pricing day, the company doubled the Maximum Purchase Price for its concurrent tender offers to US$1.0 billion from US$500 million, excluding accrued interest, while stating that no other tender terms had changed. The 6.950% 2027s therefore remain Acceptance Priority Level 1 at $101.75 and the 2.500%/9.000% Step Up Amortizing 2029s Priority Level 2 at $104.20, each per US$1,000 principal amount. If fully utilized and supported by sufficient participation, the enlarged cap could retire all US$643 million of the 2027s and approximately US$331 million of the 2029s, for combined principal retirement of roughly US$975 million. The tender expires September 16 and is expected to settle on or around September 18.
New Issue Terms
· Issuer: YPF S.A. (B1/B)
· Instrument: Senior unsecured notes, 144A / Reg S
· Size: US$1.2 billion
· Maturity: June 18, 2035, bullet, 8.75 years
· Coupon: 7.550%, semiannual, 30/360
· Yield: 7.85%, from IPT in the low 8% area
· Issue Price: $98.075
· Settlement: September 18, 2026
· Optional Redemption: Make-whole prior to December 18, 2030; callable at $103.775 from December 18, 2030, $101.8875 from December 18, 2031, and par from December 18, 2032
· Use of Proceeds: Fund the tender offers for the 6.950% 2027s and 2.500%/9.000% Step Up Amortizing 2029s, with remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes
· Bookrunners: BBVA, Itaú (B&D), J.P. Morgan, Santander. Joint bookrunner: Balanz
