Archive - EM Spreads

PEMEX 1Q26: Policy Support Drives Rally, but Standalone Weakness Persists

Debt reduction and sovereign backing support Overweight, while weak cash generation and tighter spreads require greater bond selectivity

May 6 • EM Spreads

Vista 1Q26: Production Scale and FCF Outlook Support Deleveraging Path

Raised guidance, higher pro forma EBITDA, and stronger FCF visibility underpin Overweight, with curve preference shifting

May 4 • EM Spreads

April 2026

Gerdau 1Q26: North America Carries Earnings, but Valuation Limits Upside

Strong liquidity and improving credit metrics support Neutral, while Brazil import pressure and tight spreads cap risk reward

Apr 30 • EM Spreads

Cemex 1Q26: Mexico Recovery and Cost Savings Drive EBITDA Beat

Pricing, operating leverage, and structural efficiencies support stronger margins, while U.S. demand and broader volume trends remain mixed

Apr 27 • EM Spreads

Simpar 4Q25: Better Execution, but Cash Generation Remains Mixed

Consolidated margins improved, though the quarter remained investment-heavy and cash flow was supported by working capital and the Ciclus Rio sale.

Apr 7 • EM Spreads

Braskem 4Q25: Credit Story Turns to Survival

Weak fundamentals, court protection risk, and reliance on external solutions leave the bonds driven more by event risk than valuation

Apr 1 • EM Spreads

March 2026

JBS 4Q25: Diversification Supports Better Than Expected Results

Brazil and Australia offset weaker protein margins, while U.S. beef and poultry still came in above expectations

Mar 30 • EM Spreads

Minerva 4Q25: Domestic Weakness and Cost Inflation Weigh on Profitability

Volumes down 10.6% QoQ on softer Brazil demand; export pricing provides partial offset, but cattle cost inflation pressures margins and clouds the 2026…

Mar 25 • EM Spreads

CSN 4Q25: Structural Risks and Execution Remain Central

Spread dislocation reflects subordination and asset sale uncertainty, while liquidity remains adequate but deteriorating

Mar 20 • EM Spreads

Telecom Argentina 4Q25: Results Support Credit Despite Integration Pressures

Revenue growth and refinancing strengthen the credit profile, though TMA EBITDA contracted sequentially and regulatory risk remains

Mar 11 • EM Spreads

Pemex 4Q25: Debt Relief Anchors the Credit, Operating Fragility Persists

Liability management operations improve maturity profile and market access, though negative funds from operations and structural production challenges…

Mar 4 • EM Spreads

YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds

Structural mix upgrade enhances operating leverage and margin durability, while liquidity constraints and Argentina risk guide disciplined bond…

Mar 2 • EM Spreads

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts