Archive - EM Spreads

Brazil Sovereign Debt: The Ballot Moved, the Budget Has Not

The first round removes the case for our tactical Underweight, but Brazil’s USD belly offers little spread pickup to Mexico and trades well inside its…

Oct 6 • EM Spreads

CSN Mineração Guidance Cut Weakens the HoldCo’s Operating Buffer

Lower mining volumes and higher costs reduce CSN’s most important source of upstream cash

Oct 1 • EM Spreads

September 2026

Province of San Juan: Copper Tomorrow, Argentina Today

Fiscal capacity bridges the bond through 2032; copper execution and market access shape the 2033 to 2035 amortization test

Sep 29 • EM Spreads

Braskem: A Haircut Enters the Talks, but the Cash Is Still Missing

Reported haircut, disputed creditor-funded new money and no binding shareholder capital leave limited recovery cushion across most of the senior curve

Sep 22 • EM Spreads

Brazil Sovereign Debt: Priced for the Ballot, Not the Budget

Brazil has richened to near one-year tights relative to its own history while fiscal and macro evidence has not improved

Sep 17 • EM Spreads

Pemex: Lower 2027 Transfer Reflects Refinancing Progress

Smaller direct support reflects a lighter maturity burden, while a steeper curve shifts value toward the long end

Sep 14 • EM Spreads

MercadoLibre Prices US$1.0bn 5.850% 2036 Senior Unsecured Notes

New 10Y improves liquidity, but current spreads offer limited cushion as balance-sheet growth continues to outpace cash generation

Sep 11 • EM Spreads

YPF prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and doubles tender cap to US$1.0bn

Expanded tender can fully retire the targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term refinancing risk

Sep 10 • EM Spreads

Simpar 2Q26: Better Operations, Coverage Still Constrains the Credit

Neutral maintained as higher-for-longer rates limit financial headroom, while bond selection becomes more compelling

Sep 4 • EM Spreads

Suzano 2Q26: Cash Flow Improves, Leverage Still Needs Repair

Lower capex and stronger cash generation support a credible deleveraging path, but execution remains central

Sep 1 • EM Spreads

August 2026

Telecom Argentina 2Q26: Stronger Credit, Upside Gets Selective

Lower leverage and improved liquidity support the fundamental case, but tighter valuations and TMA execution risk favor selective exposure

Aug 27 • EM Spreads

MercadoLibre 2Q26: Growth Outruns the Credit Profile

Strong ecosystem growth has yet to translate into slower debt growth or a better leverage profile.

Aug 26 • EM Spreads

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts