Archive - EM Spreads

Simpar 4Q25: Better Execution, but Cash Generation Remains Mixed

Consolidated margins improved, though the quarter remained investment-heavy and cash flow was supported by working capital and the Ciclus Rio sale.

Apr 7 • EM Spreads

Braskem 4Q25: Credit Story Turns to Survival

Weak fundamentals, court protection risk, and reliance on external solutions leave the bonds driven more by event risk than valuation

Apr 1 • EM Spreads

March 2026

JBS 4Q25: Diversification Supports Better Than Expected Results

Brazil and Australia offset weaker protein margins, while U.S. beef and poultry still came in above expectations

Mar 30 • EM Spreads

Minerva 4Q25: Domestic Weakness and Cost Inflation Weigh on Profitability

Volumes down 10.6% QoQ on softer Brazil demand; export pricing provides partial offset, but cattle cost inflation pressures margins and clouds the 2026…

Mar 25 • EM Spreads

CSN 4Q25: Structural Risks and Execution Remain Central

Spread dislocation reflects subordination and asset sale uncertainty, while liquidity remains adequate but deteriorating

Mar 20 • EM Spreads

Telecom Argentina 4Q25: Results Support Credit Despite Integration Pressures

Revenue growth and refinancing strengthen the credit profile, though TMA EBITDA contracted sequentially and regulatory risk remains

Mar 11 • EM Spreads

Pemex 4Q25: Debt Relief Anchors the Credit, Operating Fragility Persists

Liability management operations improve maturity profile and market access, though negative funds from operations and structural production challenges…

Mar 4 • EM Spreads

YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds

Structural mix upgrade enhances operating leverage and margin durability, while liquidity constraints and Argentina risk guide disciplined bond…

Mar 2 • EM Spreads

February 2026

Vista 4Q25: Operational Momentum Reinforces Curve Preference

Shale scale, export-linked pricing and disciplined leverage support medium-term cash visibility

Feb 27 • EM Spreads

MercadoLibre 4Q25: Strong Growth, Margin Pressure Persists

Neutral as ecosystem investments and credit expansion weigh on profitability and limit near-term spread compression

Feb 25 • EM Spreads

Gerdau 4Q25: North America Drives Earnings, Brazil Margins Remain Pressured

73% EBITDA from U.S. operations supports stability, while import penetration and trade defense timing weigh on Brazil recovery

Feb 25 • EM Spreads

Suzano 4Q25: Volume Recovery Supports Healthy Cash Generation

Higher volumes and improved cost efficiency lift EBITDA ahead of consensus and reinforce free cash flow momentum

Feb 11 • EM Spreads

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