Archive - EM Spreads

Brazil Sovereign Debt: External Strength, Fiscal Drift

Strong reserves, local funding depth and FDI coverage support carry, but fiscal affordability and limited reform visibility cap compression

Jul 6 • EM Spreads

June 2026

Braskem Standstill Shifts Focus to Structure

Court protection reduces enforcement risk, but proposed amendment terms make coupon, maturity and recovery structure the key curve drivers

Jun 30 • EM Spreads

Telecom Argentina: TMA Remedies Hit Business, Credit Holds

Conditional approval removes rejection risk, but the remedy package reduces synergy upside and leaves Telecom bonds as a carry hold, not a new Buy.

Jun 24 • EM Spreads

Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit

Improved policy credibility supports recovery, but further upside depends on reserves, market access and policy continuity through the 2027 election…

Jun 22 • EM Spreads

Cemex Prices US$1.5bn 5.750% 2036 Senior Unsecured Notes

Buy on the New 10Y, Driven by Carry and Liquidity

Jun 4 • EM Spreads

Simpar 1Q26: Improving Margins, Harder Upside

Lower capex and stronger EBITDA support the credit direction, while tighter spreads raise the bar for recurring FCF and deleveraging

Jun 3 • EM Spreads

May 2026

Telecom Argentina 1Q26: Credit Improves, Upside Narrows

Stronger EBITDA, lower leverage, and refinancing support the credit, but valuation, liquidity, and TMA regulatory risk cap the trade

May 26 • EM Spreads

MercadoLibre 1Q26: Full Cart, Thinner Margins

Ecosystem growth remains impressive, but credit expansion, investment intensity, and fair valuation keep bond upside limited

May 25 • EM Spreads

CSN 1Q26: Bridge Loan Supports a Show-Me Credit

Wide spreads compensate for execution risk, while deleveraging still depends on asset sales, refinancing, and stronger cash generation

May 21 • EM Spreads

Braskem 1Q26: Event Risk Drives the Trade

Improved spreads and policy support provide optionality, but recovery outcomes remain tied to creditor talks and liquidity preservation

May 19 • EM Spreads

JBS 1Q26: Softer Quarter, Sharper Bond Selection

Weaker EBITDA, negative FOCF, and rising leverage narrow the margin for error in an uneven protein cycle

May 15 • EM Spreads

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

Shale scale and improving credit metrics reinforce Overweight, while valuation now favors selective exposure

May 13 • EM Spreads

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