Archive - EM Spreads

MercadoLibre 1Q26: Full Cart, Thinner Margins

Ecosystem growth remains impressive, but credit expansion, investment intensity, and fair valuation keep bond upside limited

May 25 • EM Spreads

CSN 1Q26: Bridge Loan Supports a Show-Me Credit

Wide spreads compensate for execution risk, while deleveraging still depends on asset sales, refinancing, and stronger cash generation

May 21 • EM Spreads

Braskem 1Q26: Event Risk Drives the Trade

Improved spreads and policy support provide optionality, but recovery outcomes remain tied to creditor talks and liquidity preservation

May 19 • EM Spreads

JBS 1Q26: Softer Quarter, Sharper Bond Selection

Weaker EBITDA, negative FOCF, and rising leverage narrow the margin for error in an uneven protein cycle

May 15 • EM Spreads

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

Shale scale and improving credit metrics reinforce Overweight, while valuation now favors selective exposure

May 13 • EM Spreads

Minerva 1Q26: Bigger Platform, Same Cattle Cycle Pressure

Scale, pricing, and integration support EBITDA, while cattle costs and working capital needs keep credit improvement gradual

May 12 • EM Spreads

Suzano 1Q26: Pulp Pricing Recovery Tempered by FX and Volume Drag

Neutral maintained as strong liquidity and cost leadership support credit quality, while tighter spreads and elevated leverage limit upside.

May 8 • EM Spreads

PEMEX 1Q26: Policy Support Drives Rally, but Standalone Weakness Persists

Debt reduction and sovereign backing support Overweight, while weak cash generation and tighter spreads require greater bond selectivity

May 6 • EM Spreads

Vista 1Q26: Production Scale and FCF Outlook Support Deleveraging Path

Raised guidance, higher pro forma EBITDA, and stronger FCF visibility underpin Overweight, with curve preference shifting

May 4 • EM Spreads

April 2026

Gerdau 1Q26: North America Carries Earnings, but Valuation Limits Upside

Strong liquidity and improving credit metrics support Neutral, while Brazil import pressure and tight spreads cap risk reward

Apr 30 • EM Spreads

Cemex 1Q26: Mexico Recovery and Cost Savings Drive EBITDA Beat

Pricing, operating leverage, and structural efficiencies support stronger margins, while U.S. demand and broader volume trends remain mixed

Apr 27 • EM Spreads

Simpar 4Q25: Better Execution, but Cash Generation Remains Mixed

Consolidated margins improved, though the quarter remained investment-heavy and cash flow was supported by working capital and the Ciclus Rio sale.

Apr 7 • EM Spreads

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